Horizon Report 2010

The 2010 Horizon Report (International Version) has just been released and having been a part of the advisory group for the Australasian version, I’m fascinated not so much what the actual predictions are, but, knowing what the process is for coming up with these lists, understanding the nature of the discourse that will have gone into finding agreement on what is included. I am in full agreement with George Siemen’s comment, that the report’s authors have put together an effective process for brainstorming, discussion, and final selection – and that it would be great if this process could be developed to involve a far wider group of people.

Having said that, I am still interested to note what the similarities and differences are between the two editions.

Mobile computing has topped the list in both editions, while open content, which appeared in the Australasian edition in the 2-3 years to adoption category, is elevated to the 1-year category in the international edition. Apart from those two, the rest of the predictions are quite different:

There’ll always be lots of debate around what should be included and what shouldn’t – that’s really the value of such an exercise, along with the fact that the exercise itself acts as an educative experience for all those involved (which is why I agree with George Siemens that it would be great to find a way of involved heaps more people in this process.)

At CORE we’ve published our own “Ten Trends” now since 2007, drawing upon the experience of CORE’s staff to provide a glimpse of the ‘big picture’ within which we operate in the education system. Our aim is to provoke further research, investigation and discussion, in order to determine how they may affect the strategic planning within individual educational institutions and at a system level. This year we’ve tried an online process, modelled on the Horizon one, enabling us to tap into the expertise of our whole team spread throughout New Zealand. The results will be published at the end of this month – but as with the Horizon Report, I expect the significant value will have been to those who participated in their development more than to those who read them.

Speaking of predictions and speculation, Charles Arthur in the Guardian has published his list of Technology Predictions for 2010. many of the predictions would support the things identified in the Horizon Reports – particularly with regards to mobile computing (not surprising) – but I was interested to read his thoughts about e-books. Seems to me that everyone is pursuing e-books at the moment, with the Kindle reader pushing the pace among other things. I for one an being inundated with links to e-books that people are encouraging me to read, and several of my professional colleagues are looking to publish their materials in this format. Arthur isn’t so certain – he predicts:

Despite all the excitement at CES about ebooks and ereaders, and the subsequent excitement about Apple’s iTablet, they won’t show much growth in revenues compared to 2009. Free ebooks are fine, but they’re just a sop to people who have ereaders and consequently no cash left.

Copyright, and particularly file compatibility arguments, will continue to dog ereaders and ebooks, while the popularity of physical books will grow: more physical books will be sold in the UK in 2010 than 2009.

I guess we’ll have to wait and see on this one.

Finally, I was interested to read Jeff Houck’s summary of 50 Things we know now that we didn’t know this time last year which is full of interesting tid-bits he’s gleaned from various new sources from 2009. Reading a list like this makes one realise just how quickly our knowledge is expanding and changing!